Stock Market Archives

What Should You Do in a Market Sell-off? Rule #1: Don’t Panic

Whenever there’s a crisis, it’s good to have an emergency plan, and when there’s a financial crisis, it’s good to have a financial emergency plan. When you’ve thought through a plan, it’s less likely that panic – or other “behavioral mistakes” – will lead you to react in ways you may be regretting for a long time.

While most investors say they’ll continue to hold on to their investments when there’s a sharp downturn (and many even say that they’ll add money when their investments go down), data tells a far different story. In December 2008, right as the market was near its lowest point, investors pulled out a whopping $10.6 billion from equity mutual funds alone.

Panicking during market bottoms is a form of “behavioral bias” that can have a devastating effect on financial health. While the S&P 500 has averaged around 10% a year, costly behavioral mistakes cause many individual investors to significantly miss those gains. That’s because, despite good advice, people still tend to put money in the stock market as it rises and pull money out as the market falls. The result: many investors buy at market tops and sell at market bottoms.

While none of us are immune to behavioral biases, there are several things we can do to help avoid costly mistakes.

1. Learn From the Past

The first step is to understand that market declines are a normal part of investing and resist the urge to panic!

tumblr_nl5tghev2m1tvtougo2_540 — CRSP 1-10 Index

While the S&P has historically returned almost 10% annually since the 1960s, those returns are not consistent. One year the market could be up 20% and the next it could decline 12%! To make the ride even bumpier: the market also has streaks where returns decline for several consecutive years. That’s when investors often begin to panic and pull their money out. Unfortunately, that’s usually the worst time to do so, and when investors often should be increasing their investments instead.

Although the market can move up and down in the course of a year, or several years, it has historically trended upwards over longer periods of time (10 or 20 years.) So if your investment horizon is longer than just a few years, remember that it’s likely the market will recover its losses – and then some – over time.

Understanding that the U.S. stock market bounces back after its declines is a helpful first step in creating “un-biased” financial habits!

2. Understand that Accepting Lower Returns May be Okay

Generally speaking, younger investors have more years ahead of them to invest. That means they are often able to put a higher percentage of their money in stocks and a very low, or even zero, percentage in bonds. How much you allocate to stocks will depend on factors such as your own investment objectives and your ability to tolerate risk.

If you know that you’re prone to panicking during market declines, however, you may want to keep your portfolio in more conservative investments than your age and investment horizon would normally indicate.

It’s much better to be a bit more conservative and hold on to your investments during market downturns, than to buy riskier assets and sell during market crashes!

3. Speak with a Professional

If you’re like most Americans, chances are you spend more time researching your next car than researching your investments!

Investing can be a difficult – and sometimes dry – subject. Learning about the history of the stock market, your own risk tolerance, and behavioral biases that can trip you up is challenging for most people and probably something you don’t want to spend a lot of time on.

That’s where a trusted financial planner can help.

A good financial planner can help guide you along the path in planning for your own financial goals; explain difficult concepts; help you discover your own risk tolerance; recommend appropriate investments based on those risk tolerances; and help you avoid making the behavioral mistakes that ruin so many people’s portfolios.

A good financial planner also understands the history of the market and knows that, while bull markets don’t last forever, declines are generally temporary as well. Knowing that, and having a plan tailored to your specific financial goals will help you to avoid panicking when markets go south, and avoid making the behavioral mistakes that ruin so many people’s portfolios.

Brad Sherman is a financial advisor based in Gaithersburg Maryland who is experienced in understanding both the history of the market, as well as how behavioral biases affect investor returns. He has a Masters in Quantitative Finance from American University and over a decade’s worth of experience in the financial industry.

If you think it may make sense for you to hire a financial advisor, call him today to see if you are a good fit.

LFS-1151185-031715

Navigating the Stock Market: Tips for Millennials

Navigating the stock market can be daunting for anyone, especially if you’re new to investing.

Between struggling to pay off student loans, finding jobs in a difficult market, and setting goals for financial independence in a stressed market environment, it’s been a daunting few years in general for many Millennials, who may have put off investing because they just don’t feel comfortable or ready.

Feeling comfortable with investing – and understanding how the stock market works – is critical, however, as you start gaining independence and start making important financial decisions. If you get started now, you’ll be maximizing your chances of hitting those marks on your way to achieving your goals!

Here are some basic tips to help you get started.

7 Tips For The Long Term Investor

● Start today: Procrastination can put a large dent in your ultimate savings. Whether you’re investing in a retirement savings plans or a regular investment account, it’s important to start early so that your investments compound. Remember, even small amounts add up over time!

● Create a plan and stick with it: There are many ways to be successful and no one strategy is inherently better than any other. Once you find your style, stick with it. Bouncing in and out of the market makes is just as likely you will miss some of the best days and hit the worst. Readjust your portfolio when necessary, but not too often.

● Think long term and be disciplined: Be prepared to buy and hold your positions. Big short-term profits can be enticing when you’re new to the market but short-term wins will get you off track. Start a program, stay invested, and don’t be too concerned with day-to-day profits and losses. Warren Buffet once asked, “Suppose you’re going to be investing for the next several years. Do you want the price of the stocks to go up or down?” While everybody assumes it’s “up,” in reality, it’s only people who are withdrawing in the near future who really want stocks to go up!

● Do your research: Always be an informed investor. Do your own due diligence with companies you’re interested in. Don’t go for a ‘hot tip’ just because there’s a lot of buzz; research companies, get advice, and decide if they’re investments that are right for you.

● Never let your emotions influence you: The markets move in cycles. When the markets are up, we feel elated about our investment decisions. When markets start to move down, we may experience anxiety and panic. Reacting emotionally can lead to spur of the moment decisions that don’t benefit you in the long run. Again: think long term.

● Always have a margin of safety: The first rule anyone new to investing needs to learn is that there are no guarantees in the stock market. An investment that looks great on paper does not always pan out in real life. Know how much risk you are willing to take and make sure your investments are aligned with your risk tolerance.

● Diversify: Never put all your eggs in one kind of basket. It’s important to make sure your portfolio includes both stocks and yield-producing assets, such as bonds, to cushion you against market volatility. Diversification doesn’t just mean investing in multiple companies either; investigate ways to invest in different markets, bother national and international, as well.

One final tip: find an experienced financial planner you trust, who “gets” you, your goals, and your timeline, and who can guide you as you invest in your future.

Brad Sherman is a financial planner who is committed to helping individuals and families achieve financial independence and gain confidence with regard to financial issues.

Call or contact him today to see if his services are a good fit for your needs.

Financial Planning for Millennials: Overcoming the Fear Factor

What do you think of when you think of Millennials? The media loves to paint Millennials as “adventurous”, “risk takers,” and “thrill seekers.” But, surprisingly, when it comes to financial planning for Millennials, their behavior is anything but risky.

In fact, there is evidence that, while emotions and biases play a large part in Millennials’ investment decisions, fear leads the list of behavioral influences.

We Millennials grew up during the Internet crash and have witnessed one of the most turbulent market cycles in recent U.S. history. With the financial crisis of 2008, and the housing bust leading to a recession, many of us have watched our parents struggle with financial security and worry about whether they’ll ever be able to retire. Many recent grads have experienced unemployment as a result of the crisis, and many are burdened with significant student loan debt. Good times? Not.

These experiences during their impressionable years have led many Millennials to take an emotionally driven approach to Financial Planning for Millennials and to adopt conservative money habits that analysts have compared to the investment behavior of young adults during the Great Depression.

They tend to be wary of investing in equities, for instance, resorting to a behavioral bias that favors peer narratives and unscientific anecdotes – such as stories of retirement-age people whose nest eggs were destroyed by the financial crisis – over careful data analysis.

In May 2013, Wells Fargo released the results of a study surveying more than 1,400 Millennials, that found that Millennials view the stock market, and most investments, as a risk not worth taking. More than half of Millennials are “not very confident” or “not at all confident” about the stock market and many of the Millennials who do consider investing in stocks see the market as a short-term investment. The survey also found that Millennials’ primary concerns were student loan debt and paying their monthly bills.

In fact, Millennials have not only taken on more student loan debt than any previous generation but they continue to struggle in a challenging job market. With many Millennials remaining unemployed or underemployed, and with bills and debt as their top priorities, they have very little disposable income for investing. Many, according to a Pew Research poll released in October 2013, did not even begin thinking about saving or establishing a 401(k) until about five years into their careers.

Additionally, a UBS Wealth Management survey report featured on Bankrate.com found that, more 39% of the Millennials surveyed – more than any other age group – said that cash is their preferred way to invest money that they don’t need for at least ten years. That’s three times the number who chose to invest in the stock market, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has gained 17% over the past year while most cash investment yields remain below 1%.

The Danger of Playing it Safe

The problem with short-term stock investment approaches and dipping in and out of the stock market is that it can work against investors, because short-term investments may be subject to a higher rate of volatility. Instead of looking at the long-term data, which shows that stocks typically outperform other more conservative asset classes over the long run, those young investors are fearful of the short-range volatility, clouding data about the positive potential of long-term investing.

That reluctance to get into the market can be problematic for long-term portfolio growth because, without the returns from stocks, it can be difficult to reach savings and retirement goals.

Bigger is Not Always Better…When Finding a Financial Advisor

With the crash of the big banks and the negative publicity surrounding Wall Street financial firms, Millennials became a generation that looked at financial professionals with mistrust. Instead, they rely more heavily on the Internet, social media, and personal networks for financial advice. Their experience with market volatility and lack of job security has had a significant impact on their attitudes and behaviors toward investing. With very little disposable income after bills and debt payment, Millennials want to feel a sense of security with their investments.

When it comes to working with a financial professional, ‘old school’, traditional banking services are of no interest to them. Bigger is not better in their minds; a smaller, more independent financial planning firm may be able to offer a more hands-on and collaborative approach to investing that Millennials feel more comfortable with.

It’s important to Millennials that they find someone they can trust and who can relate to their concerns and be open to new ideas and methods of investing. Sherman Wealth Management understands that being a part of the investing process is a must in financial planning for Millennials. We fill a role for clients who can no longer relate to, or trust, the large financial institutions that once held a stronghold in the marketplace. The professionals at Sherman Wealth Management provide a personalized plan for investing and help our clients navigate through the difficulty of prioritizing financial obligations.

Remember how it was the overconfidence of the large financial firms and irresponsible investors that brought us the financial crisis in the first place? That Millennial reluctance to let history blindly repeat itself may turn out to be a pretty good thing after all!